Economic Geography and Complexity Theory

29. Economic Geography and Complexity Theory

Authors:
Koen Frenken, Utrecht University
Frank Neffke, Complexity Science Hub

 

Abstract

The global economy operates as a complex system that allocates resources in a decentralized way across myriad agents. Over time, it exhibits an impressive rate of collective learning as evidenced by its growing productivity and the expanding variety of output it generates. However, growth, productivity, and learning are not distributed equally across locations. On the contrary, wealth, opportunity, economic activity, and innovation all tend to concentrate in a relatively small number of affluent places. Various strands of complexity science have contributed to our understanding of these phenomena. However, they have done so in disconnected debates and communities. In this chapter, we use the framework of economic complexity to synthesize insights derived from three distinct literatures: urban scaling, evolutionary economic geography, and global production networks. Economic complexity proposes that production requires access to capabilities, such that increasing the variety of economic production necessitates acquiring or accessing new capabilities. From this synthesis, we derive a research agenda that aims to understand how local economies develop, not only as individual units exploring their adjacent possible but as parts of a system that allows local economies to mix their capabilities with those of distant counterparts by relying on the interplay of multinational corporations, global value chains, and institutions to coordinate interactions at the local and global scale.

Bibliography

Balland, P. A., C. Jara-Figueroa, S. G. Petralia, M. P. Steijn, D. L. Rigby, and C. A. Hidalgo. 2020. “Complex Economic Activities Concentrate in Large Cities.” Nature Human Behaviour 4 (3): 248–254. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-019-0803-3.

Barney, J. 1991. “Firm Resources and Sustained Competitive Advantage.” Journal of Management 17 (1): 99–120. https://doi.org/10.1177/014920639101700108.

Becker, G. S., and K. M. Murphy. 1992. “The Division of Labor, Coordination Costs, and Knowledge.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 107 (4): 1137–1160. https://doi.org/10.2307/2118383.

Bettencourt, L. M. A., J. Lobo, D. Helbing, C. Küh­nert, and G. West. 2007. “Growth, Innovation, Scaling, and the Pace of Life in Cities.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 104: 7301–7306. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0610172104.

Boschma, R. A., and K. Frenken. 2006. “Why Is Economic Geography Not an Evolutionary Science? Towards an Evolutionary Economic Geography.” Journal of Economic Geography 6 (3): 273–302. https://doi.org/10.1093/jeg/lbi022.

Duranton, G., and D. Puga. 2005. “From Sectoral to Functional Urban Specialisation.” Journal of Urban Economics 57 (2): 343–370. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2004.12.002.

Frenken, K., and R. A. Boschma. 2007. “A Theoretical Framework for Evolutionary Economic Geography: Industrial Dynamics and Urban Growth as a Branching Process.” Journal of Economic Geography 7 (5): 635–649. https://doi.org/10.1093/jeg/lbm018.

Frenken, K., F. Neffke, and A. van Dam. 2023. “Capabilities, Institutions and Regional Economic Development: A Proposed Synthesis.” Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society 16 (3): 405–441. https://doi.org/10.1093/cjres/rsad021.

Frenken, K., F. van Oort, and T. Verburg. 2007. “Related Variety, Unrelated Variety, and Regional Economic Growth.” Regional Studies 41 (5): 685–697. https://doi.org/10.1080/00343400601120296.

Gomez-Lievano, A., and O. Patterson-Lomba. 2021. “Estimating the Drivers of Urban Economic Complexity and Their Connection to Economic Performance.” Royal Society Open Science 8 (9): 210670. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.210670.

Gomez-Lievano, A., O. Patterson-Lomba, and R. Hausmann. 2016. “Explaining the Prevalence, Scaling, and Variance of Urban Phenomena.” Nature Human Behaviour 1: 0012. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-016-0012.

Hausmann, R., and C. A. Hidalgo. 2011. “The Network Structure of Economic Output.” Journal of Economic Growth 16: 309–342. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10887-011-9071-4.

Hayek, F. A. 1945. “The Use of Knowledge in Society.” The American Economic Review 35 (4): 519–530. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1809376.

Henrich, J., and R. Boyd. 2002. “On Modeling Cognition and Culture: Why Cultural Evolution Does Not Require Replication of Representations.” Journal of Cognition and Culture 2 (2): 87–112. https://doi.org/10.1163/156853702320281836.

Hidalgo, C. A., and R. Hausmann. 2009. “The Building Blocks of Economic Complexity.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 106 (26): 10570–10575. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0900943106.

Hidalgo, C. A., B. Klinger, A. L. Barabási, and R. Hausmann. 2007. “The Product Space Conditions the Development of Nations.” Science 317 (5837): 482–487. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1144581.

Inoua, S. 2023. “A Simple Measure of Economic Complexity.” Research Policy 52 (7): 104793. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2023.104793.

Klepper, S. 2010. “The Origin and Growth of Industry Clusters: The Making of Silicon Valley and Detroit.” Journal of Urban Economics 67 (1): 15–32. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2009.09.004.

Kremer, M. 1993. “The O-Ring Theory of Economic Development.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 108 (3): 551–575. https://doi.org/10.2307/2118400.

Krugman, P. 1991. “Increasing Returns and Economic Geography.” Journal of Political Economy 99 (3): 483–499. https://www.jstor.org/stable/2937739.

—. 1997. “How the Economy Organizes Itself in Space: A Survey of the New Economic Geography.” In The Economy as a Complex Evolving System II, edited by W. B. Arthur, S. N. Durlauf, and D. A. Lane, 239–262. Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press.

Martin, R., and P. Sunley. 2006. “Path Dependence and Regional Economic Evolution.” Journal of Economic Geography 6 (4): 395–437. https://doi.org/10.1093/jeg/lbl012.

McNerney, J., Y. Li, A. Gomez-Lievano, and F. Neffke. 2021. “Bridging the Short-Term and Long-Term Dynamics of Economic Structural Change.” Nature Communications 16: 10225. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-65043-0.

Mealy, P., J. D. Farmer, and A. Teytelboym. 2019. “Interpreting Economic Complexity.” Science Advances 5 (1): eaau1705. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aau1705.

Menzel, M.-P., and D. Fornahl. 2010. “Cluster Life Cycles—Dimensions and Rationales of Cluster Evolution.” Industrial and Corporate Change 19 (1): 205–238. https://doi.org/10.1093/icc/dtp036.

Neffke, F., M. Hartog, R. Boschma, and M. Henning. 2018. “Agents of Structural Change: The Role of Firms and Entrepreneurs in Regional Diversification.” Economic Geography 94 (1): 23–48. https://doi.org/10.1080/00130095.2017.1391691.

Neffke, F., M. Henning, and R. Boschma. 2011. “How Do Regions Diversify over Time? Industry Relatedness and the Development of New Growth Paths in Regions.” Economic Geography 87 (3): 237–265. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1944-8287.2011.01121.x.

Neffke, F., M. Henning, R. Boschma, K. J. Lundquist, and L. O. Olander. 2011. “The Dynamics of Agglomeration Externalities along the Life Cycle of Industries.” Regional Studies 45 (1): 49–65. https://doi.org/10.1080/00343401003596307.

Neffke, F., and M. S. Henning. 2008. Revealed Relatedness: Mapping Industry Space. Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography 08.19. DRUID, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Industrial Economics and Strategy/Aalborg University, Department of Business Studies.

Neffke, F. M. H. 2019. “The Value of Complementary Co-Workers.” Science Advances 5 (12): eaax3370. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aax3370.

Nelson, R., and S. Winter. 1982. An Evolutionary Theory of Economic Change. Cambridge, MA: Belknap Press.

Pichler, A., C. Diem, A. Brintrup, F. Lafond, G. Magerman, G. Buiten, T. Y. Choi, V. M. Carvalho, J. D. Farmer, and S. Thurner. 2023. “Building an Alliance to Map Global Supply Networks.” Science 382 (6668): 270–272. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adi7521.

Pumain, D., F. Paulus, C. Vacchiani-Marcuzzo, and J. Lobo. 2006. “An Evolutionary Theory for Interpreting Urban Scaling Laws.” Cybergeo 343: 20. https://doi.org/10.4000/cybergeo.2519.

Schetter, U., D. Diodato, E. Protzer, F. Neffke, and R. Hausmann. 2024. From Products to Capabilities: Constructing a Genotypic Product Space. CEPR Discussion Paper no. 19369. https://cepr.org/publications/dp19369.

Tacchella, A., M. Cristelli, G. Caldarelli, A. Gabrielli, and L. Pietronero. 2012. “A New Metrics for Countries’ Fitness and Products’ Complexity.” Scientific Reports 2 (723): 1–7. https://doi.org/10.1038/srep00723.

van Dam, A., and K. Frenken. 2022. “Variety, Complexity, and Economic Development.” Research Policy 51 (8): 103949. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2020.103949.

van Dam, A., A. Gomez-Lievano, F. Neffke, and K. Frenken. 2023. “An Information-Theoretic Approach to the Analysis of Location and Co-Location Patterns.” Journal of Regional Science 63: 173–213. https://doi.org/10.1111/jors.12621.

BACK TO The Economy as an Evolving Complex System IV